Is Columbus the next Atlanta Thrashers

by Brandt Corbin

            How soon do the Columbus Blue Jackets have before they run into the fate of the Atlanta Thrashers. Bad year after bad year and eventually the fan base eroded each and every year to where the ownership looked for local investors then looked to relocate. Similiar to Thrashers, the Blue Jackets have made the playoffs one time, in which they were swept. Both teams since have not been close to the playoff picture.
            Columbus in 2009-10 attendance average was 15,417 over the teams 41 home games. That included 5 crowds over 18,000, one of which was 19,136 (5th game of the season). In 2010-11 the average crowd was 13,602 (-1,800) difference over one season. The biggest crowd of the year was 19,103, three crowds under 10,000, the smallest being 9,128 the smallest in franchise history on October 28, 2010 against the Edmonton Oilers.
            Payroll last season for the Blue Jackets was 52 million, for a team that draws under 14,000 its almost a guarantee they are losing 10 million per year if not more. If veteran defenseman Mike Commodore’s 3.5 million salary is buried in the minors, the CBJ would have 36 million committed to 13 players next year. Could the Jackets throw in a 3 round pick with Commodore, to get him off the books?
But the financial issues are not the only problems going forward for the team as on the ice its not looking much better.
Do the Jackets have a strength
            Goaltending has been average at best for two years. Each and every other week whether it was former coaches Ken Hitchcock, Claude Noel or current coach Scott Arniel, they’d question themselves on who’d be their best goalie. Its safe to say 80% of the time over the past two years, Steve Mason has been the go to guy. Only problem is he’d be great for two games, then absolutely rotten for the next two, and its been like that none stop. Backup Mathieu Garon was no better with his consistency, earlier in the year he was named the teams #1 goalie. When the next game came around, he as pulled during the first half of the game.
            The teams solution, is clear. Despite investing 2.35 million for the next two years on Mason, they need to get an established veteran to at least split the duties. The two guys I’d focus on would be Dwayne Rolloson or Jose Thedore, or see how much Tomas Vokoun would request on a 2 year deal. The team has no chance to make the playoffs if the goaltending tandem stays the same, they’ve been there and done that.
           Part of the Blue Jackets issues is they have an average top six forwards. Rick Nash is the captain and the only true goal scorer. After Nash they’ve got youngsters Jakub Voracek and Derick Brassard, these two have to get their s**t together, its on/off every other game hell every other period. Two other up and coming prospects have given the some hope. This year Matt Calvert came out of no-where and provide them some much needed secondary scoring. Look for former 4th overall pick Ryan Johannson to be given a long look to make the team as a fourth liner. The team has to walk away from veterans Chris Clark, Ethan Moreau, Andrew Murray and Scottie Upshall all of which are UFA’s. Upshall I’d consider but only if he’s willing to sign for under 1.8 million. The others are old and/or not quick enough to keep up with the pace of play.
          They’ve got two defenseman Kris Russell and Fedor Tyutin under contract for next year, that’s assuming veteran Commodore stays in the minors. Tyutin and Russell would be at best number four de-man. Third year reguard Marc Methot will be resigned, same likely for Grant Clitsome, both are #4-5 de-man. They should walk away from Jan Hejda, Anton Stralman and Sami Lepisto, but Hejda could be re-signed if they’d bring back any of the three.
           It’s obvious they need two or three defenseman, and they need number one, two kind of guys, with the only problem being no one will find Columbus attractive. They of course then would need to over pay to get a top defenseman plus making it a multi year deal.
How long before Nash wants out
            How long before Nash says he’s had enough of the mediocrity and says he wants out? Or do the Blue Jackets look into shopping him to see if they can improve themselves.  What could the Jackets fetch for their franchise player, he is undoubtedly the face of the franchise. Would the Leafs part with Luke Schenn or Nazim Kadri, they would not part with both but what about one of them? The LA Kings would be a possible match, they’ve got loads of prospects and some parts they’d part with. What about Dustin Penner, Vyacheslav Voynov and Jonathan Bernier and draft picks? Or Bernier, Voynov and Dustin Brown. How about this for a blockbuster, Jordan Staal + for Rick Nash? You’d have to think they’d get a load of offers, and eventually they’d have look at moving on, Nash might have 3-4 more years of 35+ goals. Its like a stock market philosophy sell high or hope the asset holds its value. Nash’s 7.8 million is a big cap hit to a smaller market hockey club.